SHOULD MALAYSIA WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER FOR TRANSITION?
WILLIAM LEONG JEE KEEN
Epitaph
for Pakatan Harapan’s Reform
When Pakatan Harapan went to the polls in GE14 there
were two fundamental promises:
-
First, to carry out reforms in its Manifesto - the
Buku Harapan consisting of 5 Pillars, 10 Promises in 100 Days, 60 Promises in 5
Years, 5 Special Pledges;
-
Second, the leadership of the Pakatan Harapan
Government will be a tag team with Tun Mahathir becoming the 7th
Prime Minister and Anwar Ibrahim becoming the 8th Prime Minister.
The people voted Pakatan
Harapan knowing full well the strengths and weaknesses of both men. Tun
Mahathir with his strengths, tenacity and experience will be able to deliver on
some but it would be unrealistic to expect him to deliver all of the promises
during the first period with him as prime minister. Anwar Ibrahim in the second
period as architect of the reform agenda is expected to deliver the rest of the
promises, especially his proposal for affirmative action based on needs.
Definitely, the public
expects this tag team of two to deliver the substantial reforms promised.
Tun Mahathir and his
cabinet is now in the ring wrestling with the problems left behind by the
previous regime. The country is in a bigger mess than was generally known before
GE14. The going is tougher than expected. Tun says he needs more time because
the problems are worse than was thought. One year is not enough, he said two
years. Now he says he would hand over after APEC in November. There are people
who asking him to stay on for the full term.
When should the transition
take place? This is tonight’s topic.
The Pakatan Harapan
government, the people voted in, is a partnership. Unlike the normal
partnership where both partners work together at the same time, it is a
partnership where one partner works first and then hand over to the second. The
timing for the transition can be determined if we ask this question - what will
the Pakatan Harapan Government’s legacy be at the end of its term?
If the transition is
badly timed and the reforms failed it may read like this -
“Here
lies one who meant well, tried a little, failed much:
surely
that may be his epitaph, of which it is a crying shame.”
This is adapted from a
quote used by Anne Kruger, acting managing director of the International
Monetary Fund in her speech describing the failure of policy reforms in
emerging market economies. She took the quote from one of the lesser known books
of Robert Louis Stevenson called “Across the Plains”. The
original quotation is this:
“Here lies one who meant well, tried a little,
failed much: surely that may be his epitaph, of which he need not be ashamed.”
I changed the last part
because an individual’s failure harm only himself even if he did not try too
hard for which he need not be ashamed. But a reformer’s policy failure is
catastrophic – millions of people suffer as a result – the poor, the jobless, the
hungry.
In the case of Pakatan
Harapan, it is a crying shame because the people presented Pakatan Harapan with
the chance to carry out change on a golden platter. This should not be squandered.
The
Reform Process
To appreciate when is
the time for transition it may be useful to understand the reform process.
Reform does not happen automatically
upon voting in the government. Voting in a new government is only the initial
step in the reform process.
Based on a large body of
policy reform studies by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (“OECD”) the reform process requires overcoming
tremendous political and technical challenges. Dealing with obstacles from
policy design to strategies for reform adoption, implementation, monitoring and
adjustments until the policy receives public acceptance. The challenges facing
would-be reformers falls widely across both time and space. The OECD concludes that making reform happen
requires the government to “seize the moment” to successfully implement
reforms.
Therefore, the question
posed in tonight’s forum is not about choosing a date in the calendar like you
are fixing a meeting, a dinner or a wedding. It is not whether May or November
is better. It is about the seizing the moment where the conditions for change
is right. It is determined by the changing conditions of the situation.
For now, this window of
opportunity for change is rapidly closing.
Meant
Well
Going back to Robert
Louis Steven’s quotation of Pakatan Harapan the would-be reformer’s legacy – the
first part - “he meant well”: we have the foreword in the
Mid-Term Review of the Eleventh Malaysia Plan. The Prime Minister wrote reforms
include achieving inclusive growth must be carried out:
“The
euphoria that greeted our success in taking over the Government after the
historic 14th General Elections on 9th May 2018 came with
a caveat – sweeping reforms and accountability must be the order of the day…
…As
such, reform includes improving the governance, accelerating innovation,
boosting productivity moving industries up the value change, enhancing the
wellbeing of the rakyat, particularly the bottom 40% of the household income
group (B40) and achieving inclusive growth.”
The Pakatan Harapan
Government means well in carrying out its promises of reforms.
Inclusive growth
requires dealing with the problems of identity politics which have risen its
ugly head. Instead of inclusiveness, we are having greater social exclusion,
more frequent hate speeches, bigotry, racial and religious intolerance. The
polemics have grown to alarming proportions in the period after GE14. The
political opponents and those who oppose the reforms have expectedly used race
and religion in an attempt to win back popular support.
Tried
a Little
The second part of
Robert Louise Stevenson’s quote – “tried a little.” The Pakatan
Harapan Government carried out a part of the promises or is in the process of
doing so but found it difficult to do all of the 60 promises. Unfortunately, in
the past 19 months, good intention was not enough. It did not fully translate
into action. As a consequence, a question of creditable commitment to the
reforms has arisen. Tun Mahathir fuel this lack of commitment when he said:
“Actually,
we did not expect to win, and we made a thick manifesto with all kinds of
promises… We need to make sacrifices to fulfill our promises. If we can’t
fulfil them, we will need a good reason that is acceptable to the people” - Dr
Mahathir
This has caused much
concern.
Failed
Much
The third part of the
quote - “failed much” depends on whether Anwar Ibrahim has sufficient
time to design, implement and win over the citizens to accept the reforms, if
not the reforms will fail.
The first determinant on
the timing is the Twelve Malaysia Plan. The Twelve Malaysia Plan
covers the period from 2021 to 2025. This is to be tabled in Parliament in the
third quarter of 2020. Anwar must surely be the one tabling the 12MP because
this is the roadmap for the reforms during his tenure as prime minister.
The second determinant
on the timing is whether Anwar is given enough time to complete the reform
process:
·
Electoral mandate: Popular
support for the reform. For Anwar to push through the reforms there must be a
strong electoral mandate. There was a strong electoral mandate given in GE14
but the support has turned against Pakatan Harapan as shown in the Tanjung Piai
by-election. Therefore, the transition must take place before the people’s
goodwill and patience with the Pakatan Harapan Government runs out.
·
Effective communications:
There must be sufficient time given for Anwar to carry out consistent
coordinated efforts to communicate and persuade voters and stakeholders on the
need for the reforms and the costs of non-reform;
·
Solid research and analysis: To
put an end to emotional appeals on race and religious differences, of objections
based on stereotypes of the different races, unsound unscientific based
arguments, prejudices and stigma, OECD suggests that an evidence-based and
analytically sound case for reform serves both to improve the quality and
enhance the prospects for reform adoption. Anwar needs the time to carry out
solid research and analysis of the root causes of the problems and to convince
the stakeholders on the wisdom and benefits of the solutions;
·
Leadership: According to OECD all
assessments on making reform happen point to the importance of strong
leadership. Successful reform requires government cohesion. If the government
is not united around a reform proposal, it will send out mixed signals and
opponents will exploit its divisions and defeat is usually the result. The call
for strong leadership does not mean a top-down iron fist approach. Successful
leadership is about winning consent from all stakeholders rather than securing
compliance through compulsion. This takes time;
·
Dealing with Opponents: It
pays to engage with those who will be most directly affected by the reform.
Inclusive, consultative policy process are no guarantee against conflict, but
they seem to pay dividends over time, not least by allowing for greater trust
among the parties involved. In dealing with the opponents of the reform, it
need not involve compromises on the essentials of the reform, it is often
possible to improve the prospects of particular groups that will be affected by
a reform without contradicting its overall aim;
The third determinant of
the timing is the political cost for reforms.
The IMF has published a
note in October 2019 entitled “The Political Costs of Reforms: Fear or
Reality.” Reforms have been successfully implemented and governments
rewarded by grateful voters when the government acts swiftly at the outset of
its term to exploit its “honeymoon” period. Overall gains and benefits to the
people materializes gradually such that the reforms early in the term will show
benefits at re-election time.
The IMF found that major
reforms are associated with electoral costs when implemented in the year prior
to an election. The results show a decrease in vote share of the coalition and
reduction in the chance of the incumbent leader of the coalition being
re-elected. This is because reforms may generate gains only in the longer term
while they may engender short-term adverse distributional effects. This can
prove electorally costly to the incumbent.
Time and efforts are
needed to engage those most affected by reforms by mitigating the potential
social and distributional costs. Finally, credible political commitment to the
reforms including strong ownership and enhanced dialogue to garner support from
business and civil society are key.
Making
the Partnership Work:
If we take into account
all these considerations the period for the transition to take place is
limited. November 2020 may be too late. By then the one favourable moment in
time to effect change may be gone and lost forever.
This country is in dire
straits. Tun Mahathir and Anwar gave us hope when both agreed to bury the
hatchet to work for the good of the country. In return the people put the fate
of this country into the hands of this partnership. Pakatan Harapan is now the
glue holding this society together. To save this country the mutual trust and
confidence of the partners in each other, in this partnership, must hold. At this crucial stage, we need this
partnership to carry us through the rough seas of reform to the safe port of
peace, unity and prosperity.
We are all tired of sex
videos, gutter politics, bigotry, charges and counter-charges of racial
prejudice and discrimination, you boycott my business, I boycott yours, frogs
jumping in and out, back-door governments and back-door deals. We need sanity,
rationality, good common sense and goodwill to pull all of us together. We are
all in the same boat let’s stop shooting holes into it. If we continue, we will
sink together. We need Pakatan Harapan to hold on together. Pakatan Harapan
must hold tight onto the hands of the people. The people have given their trust
to Pakatan Harapan.
We pray that our Pakatan
Harapan leadership take charge and ensure the reforms this country, desperately
needs, are implemented. To do this, a timely handover is important. I am sure
you and I, all of us, want a smooth and certain transition.
Thank you,
William Leong Jee Keen
13 January 2020
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