Tuesday, October 27, 2009

预算案暴露我国患上“荷兰症” 首相署开销百亿满足巫统诸侯

国阵政府每年从国油抽走数百亿令吉的石油税收,却尽数挥霍在没有生产力的领域以滋养巫统朋党的做法,昨晚继续成为民联领袖围剿的目标。

NONE公正党总财政兼士拉央国会议员梁自坚(左图)强调,我国目前已经染上“荷兰症”(Dutch disease),尽管国内拥有丰富的天然资源,最终却可能变成一个贫穷国家。最明显的征兆,就是充斥的政治贪污和寻租行径(rent seeking)。

“荷兰症“是指荷兰当年因发现原油而增加收入,但是国人的个人生产力却没有因为石油收入而同步提升,导致荷兰的国际价格竞争力下降,因此也被视为“丰富天然资源的诅咒”。

他昨晚是在行动党2010年财政预算案讲座会上如此表示。这场于隆雪华堂讲堂举行的讲座会也获得民众热烈的反应,获得约200人出席聆听。

其他主讲人还包括行动党秘书长兼槟州首席部长林冠英、巴生国会议员查尔斯圣地亚哥、灵北区国会议员潘俭伟、行动党升旗山国会议员刘镇东,以及回教党瓜拉雪兰莪国会议员祖基菲阿末。

天然收入滋养庞大公共领域

NONE梁自坚指出,我国40%的收入是来自天然资源,包括石油、天然气和棕油。这笔横财滋养了出世上其中一个最大的公共领域经济,占国民总产值的37%。

“这些钱都被用来进行私营化计划,并导致了两个严重的后果,第一是政治贪污,因为私营化计划都发给拥有政治关系的人物;至于第二则是寻租行径,因为你有特权,所以可以借此赚取暴利。”

不过,他表示,政府却没有提出具体的方案,来解决这些问题。

“当我们讨论预算案时,解决方案到底在哪里?政治意愿到底在哪里?纳吉做(前首相)马哈迪、阿都拉没有做到的事情,反抗巫统诸侯的勇气到底在哪里?”

全党争夺合约如日本自民党

NONE刘镇东(左图)也分析2010年财政预算案下,各政府部门所获得的拨款数目,揭露巫统仍然维持着党国一体的结构。他指出,巫统基本上是如同日本最近刚刚输掉垄断近50年政权的自由民主党,上上下下讲究的都是建筑合约。

他通过照片出示预算案内的数据,指首相署在2009年和2010年的拨款总额就高达140亿和120亿令吉,其中发展开销分别是10亿令吉和8亿令吉,大多数预算都是建筑工程,包括皇宫工程、沙巴、砂拉越和吉隆坡的道路工程。

“大多数钱会用在建筑工程,因为首相必须让巫统领袖和诸侯开兴。”

他表示,前首相阿都拉去年也特地将首相署的发展拨款,从前年的3亿令吉提高至去年的10亿令吉,大多数是用在沙巴和砂拉越,目的就是应对民联916变天的威胁,避免两州国阵议员跳槽。

相比之下,作为国内最高立法议会的国会,今年却只是获得区区6600万令吉,差距高达200倍。

行动党预算案限用国油财富

NONE潘俭伟也批评说,纳吉在这次预算案中并没有提出制度改革,来保护我国的石油财富。他表示,这次削减行政开销13%,其实并非是他们的本意,而是因为政府已经没有钱。

“国油收入从2004年的190亿令吉至今年的700亿令吉。政府不只是拿走国油所有的收入,甚至以国油的收入来借贷和花光。因此,当他们要增加开销刺激经济时,就面对捉衿见肘的问题。”

NONE负责草拟行动党替代预算案的潘俭伟(右图)说,该党和政府预算案最大的差别,他们提出数个政策来保护石油财富,避免政府因为本身的利益而滥用这笔收入。

他重申,政府应该设下只能抽取国油收入50%的顶限,而且其中20%必须注入国家振兴基金、20%用在再生工艺资源,以及20%投资人力资源。

“如果我们有一天组织政府,这些政策都会纳入制度里面。就算是国阵政府重新执政,这些机制都会继续保留,人民的财富也会获得保护。”

5%产业盈利税没年限不公平

林冠英也提及政府重新提出5%产业盈利税,以增加政府收入的问题。他表示,我国出现财政赤字的关键问题其实是政府缺乏效率,出现浪费和贪污。

“政府其实不需要征收产业盈利税,政府只是需要铲除贪污就能铲除赤字。根据星报报道,我国一年的贪污成本就高达280亿令吉。”

NONE林冠英(左图)也批评,政府重新征收5%产业盈利税,并且没有设下房屋购买日期的年限,是不公平和不合法,因为这已经逾越法律仅能追究6年发生的事情的规定。

“如果你在70年代购买产业,然后在40年后的现在售卖,赚取20万令吉盈利,政府就会抽取5%税率。你怎么能向40年前购买的产业征税?”

Saturday, October 24, 2009

收入减少·开支下降 安华:预算案没药方

作者/本刊黄书琪 Oct 23, 2009 10:07:47 pm

http://www.merdekareview.com/news/n/11165.html

【本刊黄书琪撰述】“这 不是一个马来西亚,而是‘一国两制’!”民主行动党秘书长林冠英批评,纳吉仅向柔佛州依斯干达经济特区的知识型员工征收15%所得税的政策并不公平。国会 在野党领袖安华则认为,即使纳吉雄心壮志欲将我国提升成为高收入经济体,但是,却他却没有在他的首份财政预算案当中,提出解决问题的根本方法。

安华指出,我国外资直接投资(FDI)从去年同期1970亿元锐减至36亿元,实在是令人惊疑、需要深究的一个数字。同时,他也表明:“收入减少,开支也下降,这只表示我国无法达到预期(经济)增长。”

他认为预算案或许提出了一些利惠人民的蝇头小利,但却没有解决实际根本问题。“首相公布他要将现有的赤字7.4%拉低,但却没有看到他提出任何直接解决方案。”

安华:首次没提国防开销

同时,安华也点到国防预算问题,“我很惊讶,这份预算案竟然完全没有提到国防领域,看来峇眼槟榔补选过了,军队也就被遗忘了。”安华透露,据其印象,这可能是首次没有提到任何关于国防开销的预算案。

安华(左图)在记者追问其他意见时表示,他将在周一进一步阐明详情。

与此同时,与安华一同召开记者会的回教党署理主席纳沙鲁丁则认为,这份预算案无法让人看到政府想要积极栽培人力资源的决心,感觉上,“商业发展比人力资源更重要。”

纳沙鲁丁和安华有志一同,认为政府虽然想要吸引外资,增加外资直接投资金额,但是从这份预算案来看,政府根本无法提出新的机制与办法吸引外资前来我国。

另外,纳沙鲁丁显然也对我国宽频覆盖率之低感到吃惊,根据纳吉在预算案中所提,邻国新加坡拥有高达88%的宽频覆盖率,日本为64%,南韩为90%,但是我国只有25%。

迟到记者会现场的民主行动党秘书长林冠英则批评纳吉首份预算案“只惠及特定地区及特定人士”。

梁自坚:没有改革影子

以个人所得税为例,纳吉今日在公布2010年财政预算案当中虽然全民减税1%,但在柔佛州依斯干达经济特区工作的知识型员工却可享有15%的低所得税,独步全国。因此,林冠英借用纳吉的口号,反批说:“这不是一个马来西亚,而是‘一国两制’!”

也是槟州首席部长的林冠英认为,这项政策极不公平,与纳吉在今日讲词提到的“一个马来西亚,共富共荣”不符,也是漠视经济特区外人民进步、繁荣的权益,因为即便是首相家乡彭亨的人民都无法享有如此优惠的个人所得税。

除了三党最高领导人的意见之外,人民公正党总财政梁自坚也在接受记者访问时提到,我国财政当前最重要的是制度性改革,例如如何对抗贪污腐败,但在这份预算案当中,他却完全看不到丝毫制度性改革的影子,只有一些减税糖果。

梁自坚也表示,东马沙、砂两州的发展问题完全没有受到正视;峇都区国会议员蔡添强则批评这份预算案显然无意拉近东、西马的经济发展差距,尤有甚者,预算案拨款发展的基础建设只集中在某些地区,根本没有任何全面提升沙巴、砂拉越二州人民生产力、经济发展的政策。

回教党瓜拉雪兰莪国会议员则认为,纵使纳吉表明要朝高收入国家目标发展,但是我国整体经济却显然正在走老路,他说:“这(预算案)看起来我们正在走回依靠天然资源如石油、棕油、橡胶、矿产的发展模式,高收入经济体是关于服务业,即使是制造业也是高收益、高价值产品。”

Friday, October 9, 2009

马来西亚的资源诅咒

http://www.merdekareview.com/wap2pg.php?id=10995

【人 民公正党/梁自坚】首相纳吉公布,为了支撑国家经济,政府将直至2010年杪,以每个月注入马币10亿元的方式刺激经济。不幸的是,就算是从2010年的 预算案中提拨马币2000亿元,或是通过政府注资来刺激经济,都不能够提振马来西亚经济的竞争力。我国经济在次贷泡沫引爆,以及接着的全球金融危机前早已 沉疴不起。除非国阵政府有诚信和勇于面对马来西亚的资源诅咒,以及拥有政治意愿去进行必要和基本的结构性改革,否则纳吉将无法解决我国的经济困境。

荷兰病症

马 来西亚已经显现出典型的"荷兰病症"或是"资源诅咒"的症状。"荷兰病症"一词于1977年由经济学家所创,是为了描述荷兰在1959年发现了大块天然气 田后,甚而促成世上最大的政府与私人的合作项目,也就是由埃索(现为埃克森美孚)壳牌以及荷兰政府在1963年成立的简明荷兰天然气联合公司(N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie),但其制造业及其余的经济却衰退的景象。

"荷兰病症"意味着一种矛盾,也就是拥有丰富天然资 源,尤其是矿物和石油的国家,其经济成长和发展往往却较缺少天然资源的国家缓慢。荷兰资源诅咒是个经济概念,用以描述一个开采天然资源的国家,其制造业不 止衰退,且伴随着道德的余波与争议。此概念说明天然资源收入的增加将会导致兑换率提升,并降低制造业的竞争力,进而为国家经济产生"去工业化"的现象。这 也会使公共管理者卷入生意的利益中。

政治腐败

荷兰病症的其中一个负面 效应是,比起注重以成长为主的经济政策,以及公平和管制良好的制度,天然资源丰富的政府发现通过分配资源予某些特定的区域将更容易维护他们的政权。天然资 源带来的大量财富造成了政治的腐败。政府不须建立制度化的设施以管制及向具生产力的经济体征税。这使经济停滞不前。


寻租的行为

另 外一个负面的效应是产生了寻租的行为。"寻租"并非通常租赁缴款的意思,而是从亚当斯密的收入分配为利润、工资与租金的理论而来。寻租的行为与追逐利润的 行为不同。在追逐利润的行为中,个体在利惠各方的交易中寻求利润。另一方面,在寻租的行为过程中,个体并没有为生产力带来任何贡献。他们通过操纵与勾结利 用的方式,例如获得土地的控制以及其它早已存在的天然资源,或是施加繁琐的条例与其它可能影响消费者与商家的政府决策从他人手上汲取无偿的价值。

创业技能的丧失

要 从受荷兰病症所苦的经济体中辨识出寻租这个问题,是因为资源的收入是一笔可观的财富,而当个人或群体尝试控制它时,这些人便会成为缺少创业精神的个体。寻 租的活动涉及几个不当的方面。首先,寻租活动耗费时间,并从具生产力与创意的活动中吸取了许多珍贵的人力资源。人才不是从事在能够产生新成长的领域,反而 是在追求即有的财富中被浪费掉。其次,当寻租活动成功时,这些财富可能会以对成长没有助益的方式处理。如果这些财富被成功寻租的个人在外国挥霍消费,而没 有投资在本土的科技发展与人力资本的话,那么成长将变得艰难。少数的个人以大众的利益为名目获取财富。当这个国家的资源被转换成奢侈品而非研究与发展时, 成长就会停滞。结果是寻租沦为腐败,不但未能鼓励投资,反而限制成长。

富者更富

看看加纳和赞比亚这两个有着丰富的矿物与石油天然气的国家,从一片荣景打回原形到贫困萧条。他们政治的腐败达到近乎绝望的程度。中央政府不但不是一个有效的监管者,反而沦为强大的寡头政治集团的奴仆。这使富者越富,而穷者越穷。马来西亚又如何呢?

马来西亚的资源诅咒

马来西亚经济成长主要是基于三方面的成长模式:
[ul] [li]制造业贸易[/li] [li]原产品贸易[/li] [li]公共经济[/li][/ul]石油和天然资源占马来西亚政府收入的40%。这续又支撑我国这个全亚洲公共经济比例最高,也就是占国内成产总值 27%的经济体。马来西亚制造业的出口在结构性的压力下正在失去竞争力。实际有效汇率(REER)在2005年至2008年之间升值了11%,侵蚀了制造 业的竞争力。天然资源提供政府足够的收入,以便能通过政府开支来维持经济增长。但这减少了迫切需要提高生产力的需要,也让无效率的情况变得普遍,如教育水 准下滑、劳动力市场被干扰和压制、持续无利润与无效率的扶弱政策与工程。最终的结果是,制造业的出口被侵蚀,以及外来直接投资的下降。这将根本地破坏我国 的经济。

教育水平不佳

由于石油和天然气收入带动了我国的经济成 长,这使到巫统及国阵政府忽略了在教育制度保持卓越品质的重要,同时也允许了许多管理失当的教育政策出现,最终导致我国的学校及大专只能生产没有就业能力 与失业的大专生。这致使我国的教育水平严重地降低。另外,相比起其他亚洲国家,我国的高等教育入学以及完成学业的比率显得相对低。马来西亚的高等教育入学 率及完成学业率分别为28.6%以及15%,比起拥有同样平均国内生产总值经济体系的预期值分别低了7%和6%。这表示马来西亚面临缺乏高等教育技术的困 境,同时也点出马来西亚不具备足够专业技术和有知识的人力资源去推动经济增值的问题。

技能不符合需求

虽然劳动力持续成长,失业率也保持在3%左右,再加上技术短缺,大专毕业即失业的人数仍然不断增加,从2000年的15.2%至2007年的25.1%。在回答一项我提出的国会提问时,政府提供了以下数据:
[ul] [li]2004年:4594失业大专生当中有163人是华裔,207人是印裔,4060人是巫裔。[/li] [li]2005年:2413失业大专生当中有31人是华裔,70人是印裔,2186人是巫裔。[/li] [li]2006年:5万6750失业大专生当中有1110人是华裔,1346人是印裔,5万594人是巫裔。[/li] [li]2007年:5万6322失业大专生当中有1348人是华裔,1401人是印裔,4万9075人是巫裔。[/li] [li]2008年(直至6月):4万7910失业大专生当中有1403人是华裔,1569人是印裔,4万75人是巫裔。[/li][/ul]这显示了我 们正面对着大专生技能不符合需求的问题。

相较之下,新加坡大学在设计课程的同时也融合了与企业的合作,因此大多数学生在毕业之前就被聘请了,82%的大学生也在毕业后三个月内获就业机会。

人力资源是企业的主要阻碍

教 育问题衍生了技能短缺以及人力不符合需求的问题,相比东亚的37%以及全球的35%,42%的马来西亚生意人认为缺乏有技能的人力资源是他们面对最严重的 生意阻碍。缺乏有技能的人力问题,源自于没有长远计划以及错误的移民政策。与其吸引更多有潜能以及最好的专才,我们的移民政策并不鼓励这些外来专才在我国 发展。拒绝世界高尔夫球冠军-Vijay Singh的公民权申请就是一个最佳例子。数以千计的外籍大专毕业生和专业人士跟随丈夫到马来西亚居住,基于政策限制,最终只能在家里当家庭主妇。同样的 政策问题使我国长期面对人才外流的困境,技能的短缺是我们无法推动经济成长。

外来直接投资下降

马 来西亚的净外来直接投资流入量不断下跌,从90年代早期的高峰以至如今的负指数,而处于同区域的中国、印度、新加坡和泰国却不断攀升。2009年6月的净 外来直接投资从2004年6月的+2.4%跌至-3.8%。此外,马来西亚也在外来直接投资流入量指数榜内从2006年的67位跌至2008年的71位。 流出的外来直接投资在过去三年内已经超越流入量,这个趋势预测将会持续并且在未来不断上升。

制造业贸易盈余的损失

马 来西亚制造业机械和运输设备的贸易盈余则由2000年的105亿美元(占国内生产总值11.2%)下滑至2008年的90亿美元(占国内生产总值的 4.1%)。相比之下,中国同期从93亿美元大幅上升至2313亿美元,韩国从412亿美元至1191亿美元,台湾从190亿美元至451亿美元,以及新 加坡从112亿美元至229亿美元。

沉默地受苦

我们在承受着马来 西亚资源诅咒的痛楚。寻租者已经把我国任何想得到的资源与设施私有化与垄断经营,这包括道路、桥梁、水供、电供、垃圾和污水处理。国油的收入被用来支付增 加个人财富的大型工程项目,如花费价值16亿美元建造双峰塔,只为了能够短暂地享受拥有世界最高建筑物的荣耀。国油的收入再次通过持有布城控股40%股权 的方式以用来支付建设新的联邦直辖区--布城那高达马币118亿元的建筑成本。在过去的十年,这种类似的项目数之不尽。我国人民在资源的诅咒下默默地忍受 着痛苦这个代价。

方案

无可否认的,马来西亚的经济被全球经济危机影响,但是我国的经济也有更深层的问题,而这些问题就是我们必须去了解和认证的。马来西亚的天然资源诅咒一定要被驱除,许多天然资源丰富的国家都逃过,也避免了这个诅咒。

施政是个关键。施政良好的国家能够设法不让经济被商品与天然资源贸易的弱点所影响。天然资源丰富的国家如挪威证明了通过直接打稳经济基础、稳健的货币政策、自由贸易以及投资制度,是可以达到以上的情况的。

执行对付贪污的法律是振兴经济的首要条件,通过提高民主和宪法保障的基本权利来强化政治和经济体系也是另一个重要因素。我国应该更多地投资在教育和公共设施领域,因为这能帮助提升制造业的竞争力。可悲的是,这些都被首相纳吉在致力推动政府注资时忽略了。

如果纳吉以及国阵不承认马来西亚天然资源诅咒,并没有任何政治意愿去改善它的话,那么没有任何一位外来投资者会把钱注入我国。没有制度改革的话,那么就算每个月把马币1亿元投入寻租经济,也等于把钱倒入大海。马来西亚人民还能在痛苦中沉默多久呢?


10月09日 20:03:22

梁自坚是人民公正党总财政兼士拉央区国会议员

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

The Malaysian Resource Curse

Pump priming : Wrong Diagnosis

Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak announced that the government will prime the economy with an additional RM1 billion monthly till the end of 2010 in a bid to bolster the country’s economy. Unfortunately, allocating RM200 billion under the 2010 budget or pump priming the economy will not return Malaysia to economic competitiveness. Malaysia’s economy was ill long before the sub-prime implosion and the consequent global financial crisis. Najib Tun Razak will not be able to redress Malaysia’s economic woes unless and until he and the Barisan Nasional Government has the honesty and courage to deal with the Malaysian Resource Curse and have the political will to carry out the necessary fundamental structural reforms.

The Dutch Disease

Malaysia has exhibited the classical symptoms of the “Dutch Disease” or “the Resource Curse”. The term “Dutch Disease” was coined in 1977 by the Economist to describe the decline of the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands after the discovery of a large natural gas field in 1959, culminating in the world’s biggest public-private partnership, N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie between Esso (now ExxonMobil) Shell and the Dutch government in 1963 only to see the rest of its economy shrinking. It refers to the paradox that countries with an abundance of natural resources specifically resources like minerals and fuels, tend to have less economic growth and worse development than countries with fewer natural resources. The Dutch Resource Curse is an economic concept to explain the relationship between the exploitation of natural resources and a decline in the manufacturing sector combined with moral fallout. The concept explains that an increase in revenues from natural resources will de-industrialize a nation’s economy by raising the exchange rate, which makes the manufacturing sector less competitive. It also leads to the public administrators getting entangled with business interests.

Political Corruption

One of the negative effects of the Dutch Disease is that it is often easier for a natural resource rich government to maintain authority through allocating resources to favoured constituents than through growth-oriented economic policies and a level, well regulated playing field. Huge flows of money from natural resources fuel this political corruption. The government has less need to build up the institutional infrastructure to regulate and tax a productive economy so the economy remains undeveloped.

Rent Seeking Behavior

Another negative effect is the creation of rent seeking behavior. “Rent seeking” in this sense does not mean the usual payment of a lease but stems from Adam Smith’s division of income into profit, wage and rent. Rent seeking behavior is distinguished from profit seeking behavior in that in profit seeking behavior, entities seek to extract value by engaging in mutually beneficial transaction. On the other hand, in rent seeking behavior, entities seek to extract uncompensated value from others without making any contribution to productivity through manipulation and exploitation such as by gaining control of land and other pre-existing natural resource or by imposing burdensome regulations or other governmental decisions that may affect consumers or businesses.

Loss of Entrepreneurial Skills

The rationale for identifying rent seeking as the problem in economies suffering from the Dutch Resource Curse is that resource revenues constitutes vast wealth and when individuals or groups of individuals attempt to take control over it, they become less entrepreneurial. Rent seeking activity involves several detrimental aspects. First, the attempts themselves are time consuming and draw valuable labour hours from productive, innovative activities. Talent is wasted in the pursuit of existing wealth instead of being employed at producing new growth. Second, when the activities are successful, the wealth may be disposed of in ways that are not conductive to growth. If the wealth is spent for personal consumption abroad for the successful rent seeker and it is not invested in domestic technological progress and human capital, growth suffers. Few individuals acquire wealth to act for the common good. The country’s resource rent is converted to luxury items, not research and development. So growth stagnates. Rent seeking degenerates into corruption which discourages investment and limits growth.

Rich become Richer

Think of Ghana and Zambia, countries abundantly endowed with minerals or oil and gas has swung from booms to busts and back again. Their politics are hopelessly corrupt. The central government, far from being an effective regulator, serves as the handmaiden to a group of powerful oligarchs, making it easier for the rich to become richer while the poor become poorer. Now think of Malaysia.

The Malaysian Resource Curse

Malaysia’s economic growth is a three legged growth model based on:

  • Manufacturing trade
  • Commodity trade
  • Public sector economy

Petroleum and natural resources provides 40% of the Malaysian government’s revenues. This in turn supports the largest public sector economy in Asia with 27% of the GDP. Malaysian manufacturing exports are under structural pressures and are losing competitiveness. The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated 11% between 2005 and 2008. This has led to competitiveness erosion of the manufacturing sector. The natural resources sector provided the revenues to allow the Government to sustain economic growth through government spending. This has reduced the urgency to increase productivity and allowed marked inefficiencies to set in; the erosion of education standards, distortion and suppression of the labour market and sustaining unprofitable and ineffective affirmative action policy projects. The end result is the erosion of manufacturing exports and a fall in inward FDI that will undermine the economy.

Underperformance in Education Standards

The oil and gas revenue driven economic growth lulled UMNO and the Barisan Nasional Government to misconstrue the importance of maintaining excellence in our education system. This allowed misguided and mismanaged policies to turn our schools and universities into factories churning out unemployed and unemployable graduates. This has resulted in our nation suffering a severe underperformance of our education standards. Malaysia tertiary enrolment and completion ratio has lagged that of some of our Asian counterparts. At 28.6% and 15%, Malaysia’s gross tertiary enroll ratio and completion ratio are 7% and 6% lower than the average expected of economies with similar level of GDP per capital. This means Malaysia is having a tertiary skills shortage. This point to Malaysia lacking the necessary skills and knowledge human capital essential to move the Malaysian economy up the value added chain.

Skills Mismatch

With the labour force growing, unemployment rate has stayed range bound at around 3% and with the skills shortage, graduates surprisingly continues to make up an increasing proportion of the unemployed group from 15.2% in 2000 to 25.1% in 2007. The Government in answer to a question I posed in Parliament gave the following breakdown of unemployed graduates:-

  • In 2004, there were 4,594 unemployed graduates of which 163 were Chinese, 207 were Indians and 4,060 were Malays;
  • In 2005, there were 2,413 unemployed graduates of which 31 were Chinese, 70 were Indians and 2,186 were Malays;
  • In 2006, there were 56,750 unemployed graduates of which 1,110 were Chinese, 1,346 were Indians and 50,594 were Malays.
  • In 2007, there were 56,322 unemployed graduates of which 1,348 were Chinese, 1,401 were Indians and 49,075 were Malays.
  • In 2008 (as of June) there were 47,910 unemployed graduates of which 1,403 Chinese, 1,569 Indians and 49,075 were Malays.

This suggests that we have a problem of graduate skills mismatch.

Singapore in comparison has its universities design their curriculum in collaboration with the industry players. The majority of the students are offered jobs before they graduate and 82% are employed within 3 months of their graduation.

Labour force a key business constrain

The education gaps have led to skills shortage and skills mismatch. 42% of Malaysian businesses rate the unavailability of a skilled labour force as the most severe business constraint compared to 37% in East Asia and 35% globally. The shortage of skilled labour is compounded by shortsighted and misconceived immigration policies. These policies instead of attracting the talented and the best and the brightest, discourages and prevents them from working in the country. The rejection of Vijay Singh’s citizenship application and the resulting loss to the nation of a world golf champion is one example. The thousands of tertiary graduate and professional foreign spouses of Malaysians being consigned by these immigration policies to become housewives is another. These same policies are the causes for the severe brain drain suffered by our nation. Due to the skills shortage, we will be unable to move the economy up the value added chain.

Falling FDI

The net inward FDI in Malaysia has been in decline. As net FDI in the region, China, India, Singapore and Thailand) continues to climb, Malaysia has experienced a downward trend from the peak in the early 1990s and is now in negative territory. The net FDI stood at -3.8% of GDP in June 2009 from +2.4% of GDP in June 2004. Malaysia has fallen from 67th in the Inward FDI Index in 2006 to 71st in 2008. The outward FDI has exceeded the inward FDI for the past 3 years and this trend is expected to continue and increase in the future.

Loss of Manufacturing Trade Surplus

Malaysia manufacturing trade surplus of machinery and transport equipment fell from USD10.5 Billion in 2000 (11.2% of GDP) to USD9 Billion in 2008 (4.1% of GDP). In comparison China had a trade surplus for the same period from USD9.3 Billion to USD231.3 Billion, Korea USD41.2 Billion to USD 119.1 Billion, Taiwan USD19 Billion to USD 45.1 Billion and Singapore from USD11.2 Billion to USD22.9 Billion.

Suffering in Silence

We are in the throes of the Malaysian Resource Curse. The rent seekers have privatized and created monopolies of every conceivable resource and amenity in the country from roads, to bridges, water, electricity, disposal of rubbish and sewerage. Petronas revenues have been used to pay for mega personal enhancing projects such as the Petronas Twin Towers where USD1.6 Billion (RM5.6 Billion) was spent to enjoy the brief moment of fame in owning the tallest building in the world. Petronas money was again used through 40% equity in Putrajaya Holdings to pay the total costs of building the new Federal administrative capital of Putrajaya amounting to RM11.831 Billion. There many more of such project in the past decade. The public have been suffering in silence as the Malaysian Resource Curse takes its toll.

Prescription

Malaysia no doubt is affected by the global financial crisis but its problems have a deeper underlying cause. It is this underlying cause that has to be addressed. The Malaysia Resource Curse must be exorcised. There are many resource rich countries that have escaped and avoided the disease.

The key is governance. Well governed countries find ways to insulate their economies from the down side of commodities and natural resources trade. Resource rich countries such as Norway has shown that this can be done by adopting straight forward economic fundamentals, sound monetary policies, and having open trading and investment regimes. The enforcement of laws against corruption is a basic requirement. The strengthening of political and economic institutions by giving effect to the democratic institutions and constitutional guaranteed fundamental liberties is another. Investing in education and infrastructure will increase competitiveness of the manufacturing sector. Sadly these have been ignored by the Prime Minister in his push for pump priming.

A global investor said that if Najib and Barisan Nasional do not recognize the Malaysian Resource Curse and do not have the political will to address it, neither he nor any other investor is going to put money into Malaysia. Without the structural reforms, pouring RM1 Billion a month into the rent seeking economy is just pouring good money into the drain. How long can the Malaysian public continue to suffer in silence?

Date: 7th October 2009

William Leong Jee Keen

Member of Parliament Selayang